Finance Desk – The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker today (Friday) after strong job data from the United States gave a big boost to the US dollar and pushed up Treasury yields.
The 1-month forward rate suggests the rupee could open in the ₹85.46 to ₹85.50 range, compared to ₹85.31 in the previous session.
Why the Rupee May Fall
A Mumbai-based currency dealer said, “The ₹85.30 level is acting like a floor for the USD/INR pair, and the strong US jobs data makes it unlikely for the rupee to rise above that anytime soon.”
On Thursday, US jobs data showed that non-farm payrolls rose more than expected and the unemployment rate dropped — showing that the job market in the US is still strong.
What This Means
Strong US job data reduced the chances of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in July.
This helped the US dollar gain strength and made it more attractive to investors compared to other currencies.
Other Key Updates
The US House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill, expected to add $3.4 trillion to the country’s national debt.
Some experts believe the impact of this bill on markets may already be factored in.
Key Market Indicators:
USD/INR 1-month forward rate: ₹85.58
Onshore forward premium: 10 paise
Dollar Index: Up at 97.01
Brent Crude: Down 0.4%, now at $68.5 per barrel
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.35%
Foreign Investment Data (July 2):
Foreign investors sold $87.2 million worth of Indian shares
Foreign investors sold $158.6 million worth of Indian bonds
Also, India’s market regulator has banned US firm Jane Street from trading in Indian securities.
