Finance Desk – The Indian rupee is expected to open stronger on Friday, getting support from a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and a recovery in other Asian currencies.
What Happened?
On Thursday, the rupee had ended at 86.0750, but on Friday, it’s likely to open between 86.00 and 86.02 — a level below 86 for the first time in nearly a month.
A currency trader from a bank said,
“Asia will support the rupee at the opening, but overall, the market still looks like a buy-on-dips situation for the dollar.”
Dollar Index Update
The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.2% to 98.40 in Asia.
It had been climbing all week, even approaching 99 on Thursday after strong U.S. economic data.
So far, the index is up 0.6% this week, after rising nearly 1% last week.
Why the Pause?
U.S. data showed:
Retail sales rose in June, suggesting stronger economic activity.
Jobless claims dropped to a 3-month low, showing a strong job market.
This data made investors believe the Federal Reserve might not rush into cutting interest rates.
Still, markets haven’t changed their expectations much — a rate cut in September is still on the table, and multiple cuts are expected in 2025.
Key Market Numbers
1-month non-deliverable rupee forward: 86.08
Onshore forward premium: 10 paise
Dollar index: 98.41
Brent crude oil: $69.50 per barrel (down 0.1%)
10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.44%
Foreign Investment (July 16 data – NSDL)
Foreign investors sold: $121.3 million worth of Indian stocks
Foreign investors bought: $3.5 million worth of Indian bonds
In short, the rupee may gain slightly today, but experts warn that the market still favors the U.S. dollar in the long run — so this could be a temporary relief.
