New Delhi: After the country’s economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent in April-June quarter, real GDP for FY21 is expected to shrink by 10.9 per cent, according to State Bank of India’s research report – Ecowrap.
It had earlier estimated real gross domestic product (GDP) at (-) 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal.
The first quarter GDP contraction compares with 3.1 per cent growth in the preceding January-March quarter and 5.2 per cent expansion in the same period a year back.
Our preliminary estimate indicates that all the four quarters of FY21 will exhibit negative real GDP growth, and decline of full year growth will likely be in double digits (around 10.9 per cent), the research report stated.
It estimates Q2 real GDP decline in the range of (-) 12 per cent to (-) 15 per cent, while Q3 GDP is seen between (-) 5 per cent and (-) 10 per cent. Q4 is expected to be in (-) 2 per cent to (-) 5 per cent range.
The report said the country’s GDP growth plunged to 23.9 per cent in Q1 FY21 due to the nationwide lockdown imposed on March 25, 2020, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and is much worse than market and its estimates.
