Goldman Sachs’ economists declared the U.S. economy all but recession-proof at the dawning of 2020, but now it appears a coronavirus-induced recession may have begun just a few months later.
The analysis didn’t account for a “Black Swan,” a term for an improbable and unforeseen event. Instead, it explored the idea of a “Great Moderation,” which is characterized by low volatility, sustainable growth and muted inflation.
“Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today,” Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote.
The economy, they argued, would settle gently after 11 years of growth.
“While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions — oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial Imbalances — seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought.”
All the risk assessment and economic modeling in the world is futile if it can’t anticipate the one variable that matters most — particularly if it’s a pandemic.
