New Delhi: The immediate impact of the development in China is that Indian steel prices have also firmed up and has shown consistent increase over last four months since July when unlock phases of the economy became more pronounced.
Steel trade data released by China suggests demand remains strong there with net steel exports declining to 10 year lows in September 2020. Moreover, high passenger car sales in September 20 20 confirm strong end user demand for steel in China. China’s domestic steel prices are also on the rise again post the National Holidays that ended last week.
“With strong steel demand supporting prices in China, we expect regional export prices to also remain strong, which should be beneficial for Indian steel prices,” Motilal Oswal said in a report.
India has already turned net exporter of steel to China for the first time in several years, with 69 per cent of semi-finished steel and 28% of finished steel heading there between April and August. The numbers have risen further in the months of September and October.
In China, net steel exports have declined to 0.94mt – a new 10-year low. Declining net steel exports despite rising steel production (up 4.7 per cent YoY over Jan-Sep’20) indicate strong steel consumption in China.
Moreover, China’s passenger car sales grew 8 per cent YoY to 2.09 million units in September 2020 (and by 7.8 per cent YoY in 3QCY20), indicating strong end-use demand for flat steel. The country’s iron ore imports also surged 9 per cent YoY to 108MT (8 per cent MoM) in September 2020, and inventories at ports rose 3 per cent MoM to 104.8MT.
